Economic research
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Eco Focus - Edition May 14, 2012
<P>The Crédit Agricole leading indicator suggests that GDP is stable in Q1 and Q2 2012. We have increased our Q1 growth forecast to 0% q/q, compared with the earlier -0.1%.</P>
ECO Focus IAV Europe - Edition May 11, 2012
<P>The fall-off in activity looks like being less marked than expected in Spain, limited to 0.3%. In Germany, activity may have fallen slightly, by 0.1% q/q, and seems to have stabilised in France in the first quarter. It is in Italy that the recession seems to have been most sudden, with GDP down 0.7%.</P>
Eclairages Emergents - Edition May 2012
<P>By 2020, the emerging economies will account for around 50% of the world economy. By then, two-thirds of global GDP growth will be generated in those countries. At that point, the world will be a different place: China's GDP will be greater than that of the EU and will be biting at the heels of the US. However, apart from a few exceptions, per capita incomes in emerging countries will still be significantly lower than those of the "developed" countries.</P>
Éclairages Émergents - Edition April 2012
<P>Average growth in Latin America will slow slightly in 2012, coming to 3.6% in volume terms, following 4.2% in 2011 and 6.0% in 2010. The modest rebound expected in Brazil will not fully offset slowdowns expected in other countries, ranging from moderate (in Mexico, Colombia and Chile) to sharper (in Argentina).The risk of deindustrialization is a considerable concern to South America's political and industrial leaders.</P>
ECO Focus - Edition 3 May 2012
<P>The ECB left its main policy rates unchanged today. The Governing Council did not discuss a change in rates as the monetary stance was deemed appropriate despite rising uncertainty. Those hoping for an explicit hint at an imminent easing may have been disappointed as a result. However, the removal of the reference to “upside risks” to inflation from the official statement is consistent with a clear shift towards a more flexible stance, in our view. In the past, this has been a traditional way for the ECB to signal a potential move on rates.</P>
ECO Focus - Edition May 2, 2012
<P>There has been much talk recently about the structural weaknesses in the French economy. But while correcting these points can only help to strengthen the country's competitiveness and boost its growth potential, France can also seek to rely on its strengths and leverage these many assets. </P>
ECO Focus - Edition April 10, 2012
The electoral programmes of the two main candidates in the French presidential election were presented in January in the case of F. Hollande, and more recently for N. Sarkozy. They should in theory tackle the French economy's structural weaknesses, and in the first instance the structural weakness of SMEs and the low level of competitiveness of French products. Their programmes offer only partial solutions. However, in both cases, the budgets are balanced in theory but raise questions, especially as regards spending targets.
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